Exxon 1982 prediction curve vs Lee Raymond 1996
Lee Raymond — Chairman and CEO, Exxon Corporation, World Energy Congress Keynote Address
“Currently, the scientific evidence is inconclusive as to whether human activities are having a significant effect on the global climate. Projections of disaster are based on completely unproven models.”
M. B. Glaser — Exxon Environmental Affairs Program Manager, Exxon 'CO2 Greenhouse Effect' Technical Report (Restricted)
“Atmospheric CO2 concentration will reach 415 ppm around 2020, with global temperature increases of 1.0°C above 1970 levels. Mitigation of the 'greenhouse effect' would require major reductions in fossil fuel combustion.”
The Split:In 1996, CEO Lee Raymond ridiculed climate models as 'completely unproven'. In 1982, Exxon's own internal mathematical model predicted 2020 CO2 levels and temperature anomalies with astonishing precision (415 ppm, +1.0°C) matching observed reality.
Dismissing models in public as 'unproven speculation' often conceals that internal planning runs on those exact same curves.